Aseason full of injuries, suspensions and one blockbuster tradecomes down to this: 45 games that will decide whether the Cubs willreturn to the postseason.
The Cubs entered Monday locked in a three-way tie for the NationalLeague wild-card lead with the San Diego Padres and San FranciscoGiants.
Glancing at the standings, it's easy to see that three of the fourNL playoff spots are taken. The division winners should be the St.Louis Cardinals in the Central, the Atlanta Braves in the East andthe Los Angeles Dodgers in the West.
Three teams are serious threats for the wild card. (Yes, theFlorida Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies aren't that far back, butyou must have a winning record to be taken seriously here.)
Seven weeks from today, the playoffs begin, so we turn to thecalendar for clues as to whether the Cubs will be popping corks onchampagne or crying in their beer. And remember, wild cards won thelast two World Series.
The three wild-card contenders all claim their best baseball isahead of them. So here's a look at what the schedule has in store.
CUBS
Overview: Just as they did late last season, the Cubs (63-54) areblessed with a weaker closing schedule than their competitors.
Only three of their last 45 games will be played against a teamwith a current winning record (the Braves, whom the Cubs will host inthe final series of the season). And only the Marlins, a team theywill play six times, had a .500 record before Monday's games.
Actually, the Cubs have an easier schedule than at this point lastseason. Entering their last 45 games of 2003, the Cubs, with a 60-57record at the time, had 16 games left against teams that had winningrecords.
The good news: The Cubs are 30-29 on the road, but enjoy a 33-25record at Wrigley Field. That's another break, considering 23 of thelast 45 games will be at home.
The bad news: The Cubs have winning records against three of theirNL Central rivals, but they are 8-11 against the Cardinals and 5-6against the Milwaukee Brewers, and their game tonight at Miller Parkis the first of six against the Brewers in the next nine days.
Longest winning streak: Six games (twice, April 19-25 vs.Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and the New York Mets; June 12-17 vs. Anaheimand Houston).
Longest losing streak: Five games (twice, May 25-29 vs. Houstonand Pittsburgh; July 5-10 vs. Milwaukee and St. Louis).
PADRES
Overview: Petco Park has been a doghouse for the Padres. They'rehitting .249 in their new home and averaging 3.7 runs. On the road,they're hitting .288 and averaging 5.5 runs, second only to theCardinals (5.6) in the NL.
"We've got some good teams coming in, and we need to find a way totake the same swings at home as we do on the road," manager BruceBochy said.
The good news: The Padres and Giants will play each other six moretimes, meaning the Cubs will get good news no matter what duringthose two series. San Diego holds a 10-3 edge over San Francisco thisseason.
The Padres were seven games over .500 (32-25) on the road, butonly 31-29 at Petco Park going into Monday's games. And 24 of theirlast 45 games are on the road.
The bad news: The Padres play two powerhouse teams, with six gamesleft against the Cardinals and seven more with the Dodgers. San Diegois 4-8 against Los Angeles.
Longest winning streak: Six games (April 26-May 1 vs. Montreal andthe New York Mets).
Longest losing streak: Six games (June 12-18 vs. the New YorkYankees, Tampa Bay and Toronto).
GIANTS
Overview: The Giants have some speed bumps ahead, with four gamesagainst the Braves, six against the Padres and six with the Dodgersin the closing weeks.
Six of the Giants' last nine games are against the hated Dodgers,including a regular-season-closing series in Los Angeles. The otherthree are against the Padres.
The good news: The Giants have six games left against theDiamondbacks and five more against the Rockies. San Francisco is 9-4against Arizona and 9-5 against Colorado.
The bad news: Those six games with the Padres and that 3-10 recordagainst San Diego could spell doom. They have beaten the Padres onlyonce this season at SBC Park. The Giants also are 0-3 against theMets, a team they face this weekend in San Francisco.
Longest winning streak: 10 games (May 20-31 vs. the Cubs,Montreal, Arizona, Colorado and Arizona).
Longest losing streak: Four games (four times, April 14-18 vs.Milwaukee and Los Angeles; April 20-23 vs. San Diego and Los Angeles;May 13-16 vs. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh; July 3-6 vs. Oakland andColorado).
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